OH 5202 · DCA → BGR

departs 10:11 PM ET · arrives 12:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5202 · DCA → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?