Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5286 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5286 · MKE → DCA

departs 12:51 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5286 · MKE → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?