Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5409 LANDED 9:18 AM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

took off 6:18 AM CT · landed 9:18 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5409 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time