OH 5457 · ROC → DCA

departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from ROC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5457 · ROC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?