Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5509 LANDED 10:53 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5509 · DCA → ORF

took off 10:18 AM ET · landed 10:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5509 · DCA → ORF

Odds over time