Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5509 LANDED 12:12 PM ET, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

OH 5509 · ORF → DCA

took off 11:42 AM ET · landed 12:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5509 · ORF → DCA

Odds over time