Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
OO 3538 · MSP → FSD
departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 3:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 22%
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at FSD that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.