OO 3787 · MSP → ICT

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ICT?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at ICT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

ICT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3787 · MSP → ICT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICT?