Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3829 LANDED 8:35 PM CT, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

OO 3829 · YYZ → MSP

took off 7:48 PM EDT · landed 8:35 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 757 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling757 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.79 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3829 · YYZ → MSP

Odds over time