OO 3886 · MSP → SBN

departs 7:59 PM CT · arrives 10:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBN?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 7pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

SBN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3886 · MSP → SBN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBN?