OO 3936 · OMA → MSP

departs 5:36 PM CT · arrives 6:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.55 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3936 · OMA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?