OO 4009 · MSP → ATW

departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATW?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW

↑ Arrivals into ATW at that hour are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

ATW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,167 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4009 · MSP → ATW

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATW?