Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
OO 4165 · GEG → SEA
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 5:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 12%
Thu 10/1 12%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.