OO 4724 · LAX → FAT

took off 4:22 PM PT · landed 5:03 PM PT (scheduled 4:15 PM PT → 5:36 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to FAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4724 · LAX → FAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to FAT?