Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
OO 5504 · ORD → TVC
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 4:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 64%
Thu 10/1 51%
Fri 10/2 29%
Sat 10/3 32%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
TVC (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.