Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5883
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 5883 · MFR → SFO
departs 6:35 PM PT · arrives 8:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 42%
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.