OO 5956 · ASE → ORD

took off 12:21 PM MT · landed 3:32 PM CT (scheduled 12:39 PM MT → 4:45 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from ASE are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ASE (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

ORD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5956 · ASE → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?