Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5961
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 5961 · SMF → SFO
departs 7:03 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 48%
Thu 10/1 25%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.