Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6435
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
OO 6435 · SBP → PHX
departs 7:02 PM PT · arrives 8:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SBP is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.