Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1296 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1296 · LIH → LAX

departs 1:01 PM HT · arrives 9:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1296 · LIH → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?