Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1495 LANDED 10:34 PM PT, ~5 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

took off 8:46 PM CT · landed 10:34 PM PT (scheduled 8:04 PM CT → 10:57 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?