Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?