Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1577 LANDED 8:21 PM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1577 · SFO → SAN

took off 7:15 PM PT · landed 8:21 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1577 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time