Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1581 LANDED 10:50 AM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

took off 7:59 AM CT · landed 10:50 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at BTV that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BTV (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1581 · ORD → BTV

Odds over time