Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1764 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

UA 1764 · IAD → LAS

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±7 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1764 · IAD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?