UA 1784 · LAS → EWR

took off 10:58 AM PT · expected to land 6:23 PM ET (scheduled 9:56 AM PT → 6:00 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

96% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
4%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
60%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1784 · LAS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?