Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1784 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

UA 1784 · LAS → EWR

departs 9:56 AM PT · arrives 6:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1784 · LAS → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?