UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

took off 2:37 PM CT · landed 5:24 PM ET (scheduled 2:00 PM CT → 5:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1821 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?