UA 1872 · MCO → IAH

took off 5:34 PM ET · expected to land 6:35 PM CT (scheduled 5:19 PM ET → 6:58 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1872 · MCO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?