UA 1983 · MIA → ORD

departs 12:30 PM ET · arrives 3:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1983 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?