Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2203 LANDED 11:49 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2203 · IAH → PHL

took off 7:51 AM CT · landed 11:49 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2203 · IAH → PHL

Odds over time