Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2629 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:12 PM ET, ETA 6:16 PM ET)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

UA 2629 · MCO → EWR

took off 4:12 PM ET · expected to land 6:16 PM ET (scheduled 4:04 PM ET → 6:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2629 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?