UA 2677 · IAD → ORF

took off 11:18 PM ET · landed 11:59 PM ET (scheduled 10:35 PM ET → 11:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility8.8 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2677 · IAD → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?