Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2805 LANDED 10:02 AM CT, ~26 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2805 · ORD → MSP

took off 9:04 AM CT · landed 10:02 AM CT (scheduled 8:50 AM CT → 10:36 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2805 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?