Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2807 LANDED 4:49 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2807 · ORD → ORF

took off 2:12 PM CT · landed 4:49 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2807 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time