UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

took off 6:41 PM PT · landed 11:34 PM CT (scheduled 6:41 PM PT → 12:07 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OMA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2839 · SFO → OMA

Odds over time

How late did it get to OMA?