Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2846 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2846 · IAH → OMA

departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 7:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2846 · IAH → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?