Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2852 LANDED 6:06 PM MT, ~11 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2852 · MIA → DEN

took off 4:17 PM ET · landed 6:06 PM MT (scheduled 3:44 PM ET → 6:23 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2852 · MIA → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?