UA 2853 · DEN → IAD

took off 12:21 PM MT · landed 5:10 PM ET (scheduled 12:26 PM MT → 5:58 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2853 · DEN → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?