Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2853SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 2853 · DEN → IAD
departs 12:26 PM MT · arrives 5:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±1 pts−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.