Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2865 LANDED 8:19 PM CT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 2865 · ORD → MSP

took off 7:19 PM CT · landed 8:19 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±1 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 7pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2865 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time