tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

departs 9:23 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
20% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2.9d 2d 1d 12h 6h Now Departs Lands

How late will it get to SBA?

  1. On time or early
    79%
  2. 15–30 min late
    7%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    7%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.