Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

departs 9:23 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SBA that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?