Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

departs 9:23 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?