Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 533 LANDED 4:51 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

UA 533 · ORD → MDT

took off 2:24 PM CT · landed 4:51 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 533 · ORD → MDT

Odds over time