UA 552 · MSP → SFO

took off 5:26 PM CT · landed 7:00 PM PT (scheduled 5:16 PM CT → 7:35 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 552 · MSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?