UA 581 · SFO → RNO

took off 6:52 PM PT · landed 7:28 PM PT (scheduled 6:48 PM PT → 7:59 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RNO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 581 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time

How late did it get to RNO?