Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

UA 623 · ORD → BZN

departs 12:45 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 623 · ORD → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?