Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 796 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:27 PM ET, ETA 6:44 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

UA 796 · IAD → SFO

took off 4:27 PM ET · expected to land 6:44 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 796 · IAD → SFO

Odds over time