Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1002 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:36 PM ET, ETA 7:52 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 1002 · BWI → MIA

took off 5:36 PM ET · expected to land 7:52 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1002 · BWI → MIA

Odds over time